最近和未来欧洲气候变化的特征

为了从日温度和日降水变化的层次来研究欧洲未来的气候,进行了6个区域气候模型的试验,研究了上述变量概率分布的变化.研究发现,这些分布的非对称性随地点和季节的变化各不相同.夏季中欧、东欧、南欧极端最高温度的大幅度变化之后,通常会出现暖季高于平均的温度升高,与此类似,东欧和北欧寒冷日温度的升高也显著大于冬季平均温度的升高.将冬季温度的模型模拟值与历史观测资料值进行比较,结果表明模拟值与观测值在日变率方面是相似的.特别地,和历史上寒冷时期相比,观测到的温暖时期平均温度在增加,而较这种增加强烈得多的寒冷日温度增加也被模型模拟了出来.在欧洲绝大部分地区和所有季节,强降水事件在模拟中的作用增加.     

Supportive Breeding and Variance Effective Population Size

The practice of supporting weak, wild populations through release of individuals bred in captivity is becoming an increasingly important conservation measure. A frequently recommended form of such breeding-release activity refers to supportive breeding: a fraction of the target population is brought into captivity for reproduction, and the resulting progeny are released to mix with the wild segment of the population. We derived an expression for the variance effective size of a population managed through supportive breeding and discuss its relationship to previously published equations that are based on the assumption of random mating. We show that the effect of supportive breeding may be quite different on the inbreeding and the variance effective sizes. Whereas supportive breeding always results in a reduction of the inbreeding effective number, the variance effective number may either decrease, increase, or remain unchanged. We discuss these observations in relation to conservation management and suggest some general guidelines for supportive breeding situations. Our recommendations include making a distinction between inbreeding and variance effective numbers; taking particular care when dealing with organisms with high reproductive potential; assuring that the amount of drift be no larger than it would be without supportive breeding; and focusing primarily on the variance effective size of a population-that is, on the effective number directly related to the rate of loss of gene diversity.     

科学的挑战--重视成本效益,清洁波罗的海

波罗的海是世界上受人类活动影响最严重的海洋之一,虽然有减少向波罗的海排放营养物质的国际协议,但迄今为止采取的措施,既没有从根本上减少营养物质的排放,也没有促进环境的改善.部分原因可以归咎为缺少有关物理学、生物地球化学和生态特性之间大尺度关系和相互作用的知识,但是还缺少全流域范围的成本效益分析.错误的决策非常危险,例如,执行的减少排放的方案根本没有效果,或远远达不到成本效益.许多学科的研究者正面临着一个共同的挑战开发一个决策支持系统,作为整个波罗的海成本效益分析法的科学基础.研究项目海洋富营养化的研究(MARE)(http∥www.mare.su.se)正致力于这方面的研究.     

不稳定气候条件下中上层鱼类的种群补充:瑞典四大湖泊研究

通过对瑞典维纳恩、韦特恩、梅拉伦和哈马伦四大湖泊中上层鱼类种群生物学的研究得出,适宜区域里鱼苗在生长季节尽早孵化,并在冬季到来之前达到一定的体长,对鱼苗的成活是至关重要的.一般认为,这不仅是为了适应春季浮游动植物的生长,同时也是为了避免被捕食.相对于秋季产卵的欧白鲑(Coregonus albula)来说,通过对春季产卵的胡瓜鱼(Osmerus eperlanus)和梭鲈(Stizostedion lucioperca)的研究,我们更容易得出上述的结论.冰融之后欧白鲑苗的迅速孵化对鱼类的种群生长较为有利.在贫营养性、掠食性鱼类很少的湖泊中,冰融化之后水温的快速回升对种群的补充较为有利,而在富营养性的湖泊中,由于存在被捕食的压力,情况就大不一样了.研究结果表明秋季产卵群体较难适应全球变暖的趋势,不同年份鱼类在年种群生长强度方面存在着较大的差异,这可用生活史来予以解释.     

A radical public administration? Green radicalism and policy influence among local environmental officials in Sweden

Green radicalism among local environmental officials in Sweden is examined with the aims of theoretically elaborating on different dimensions of Green radicalism in the context of public administration, exploring the dimensionality of Green radicalism among officials, and examining the extent to which Green radicalism is associated with policy influence. Three types of Green radicalism are identified: Green ethics, Green institutional change, and Green activism. Survey data (N = 701) show that the three theoretical dimensions are present among officials, and that there is no negative association between radicalism and influence. It is primarily officials with Green activism beliefs who perceive themselves as able to influence policy. These findings suggest a need for more nuanced understanding of and further studies into the role of public administration in the quest for more radical Green reforms.     

Hypoxia in the Baltic Sea: Biogeochemical Cycles, Benthic Fauna, and Management

Hypoxia has occurred intermittently over the Holocene in the Baltic Sea, but the recent expansion from less than 10 000 km² before 1950 to >60 000 km² since 2000 is mainly caused by enhanced nutrient inputs from land and atmosphere. With worsening hypoxia, the role of sediments changes from nitrogen removal to nitrogen release as ammonium. At present, denitrification in the water column and sediments is equally important. Phosphorus is currently buried in sediments mainly in organic form, with an additional contribution of reduced Fe-phosphate minerals in the deep anoxic basins. Upon the transition to oxic conditions, a significant proportion of the organic phosphorus will be remineralized, with the phosphorus then being bound to iron oxides. This iron-oxide bound phosphorus is readily released to the water column upon the onset of hypoxia again. Important ecosystems services carried out by the benthic fauna, including biogeochemical feedback-loops and biomass production, are also lost with hypoxia. The results provide quantitative knowledge of nutrient release and recycling processes under various environmental conditions in support of decision support tools underlying the Baltic Sea Action Plan.     

Reduction of Baltic Sea Nutrient Inputs and Allocation of Abatement Costs Within the Baltic Sea Catchment

The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) requires tools to simulate effects and costs of various nutrient abatement strategies. Hierarchically connected databases and models of the entire catchment have been created to allow decision makers to view scenarios via the decision support system NEST. Increased intensity in agriculture in transient countries would result in increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, particularly from Poland, the Baltic States, and Russia. Nutrient retentions are high, which means that the nutrient reduction goals of 135 000 tons N and 15 000 tons P, as formulated in the BSAP from 2007, correspond to a reduction in nutrient loadings to watersheds by 675 000 tons N and 158 000 tons P. A cost-minimization model was used to allocate nutrient reductions to measures and countries where the costs for reducing loads are low. The minimum annual cost to meet BSAP basin targets is estimated to 4.7 billion €.     

Ecosystem engineering potential of the gastropod Terebralia palustris (Linnaeus, 1767) in mangrove wastewater wetlands - A controlled mesocosm experiment

The effect of different sewage concentrations (0, 20, 60 and 100%), vegetation (Bare, Avicennia marina or Rhizophora mucronata) and immersion periods (immersion/emersion period of 12/12 h or 3/3 days just for 100%) conditions were studied for 6 months on survival and growth rates of Terebralia palustris (Linnaeus, 1767). Gastropods' activity and ecosystem engineering preformed at bare and A. marina planted cells and 3 sewage conditions (0, 20 and 60%) were determined. Survival rates were higher than 70% in all treatments. Growth rate decreased significantly with increasing sewage concentrations (mainly at unplanted conditions) and longer immersion periods. A complete shift (from immersion to emersion periods) and a significant decrease in mobility and consequently its engineer potential, due to sewage contamination, lead to a 3-4 fold decrease in the amount of sediment disturbed. Sewage contamination, primary producers' abundance and environmental conditions may have influenced the gastropods survival, growth and its ecosystem engineering potential.     

Framework for integrating sustainability into remediation projects

The US Sustainable Remediation Forum (SURF) created this Framework to enable sustainability parameters to be integrated and balanced throughout the remediation project life cycle, while ensuring long‐term protection of human health and the environment and achieving public and regulatory acceptance. Parameters are considerations, impacts, or stressors of environmental, social, and economic importance. Because remediation project phases are not stand‐alone entities but interconnected components of the wider remediation system, the Framework provides a systematic, process‐based approach in which sustainability is integrated holistically and iteratively within the wider remediation system. By focusing stakeholders on the preferred end use or future use of a site at the beginning of a remediation project, the Framework helps stakeholders form a disciplined planning strategy. Specifically, the Framework is designed to help remediation practitioners (1) perform a tiered sustainability evaluation, (2) update the conceptual site model based on the results of the sustainability evaluation, (3) identify and implement sustainability impact measures, and (4) balance sustainability and other considerations during the remediation decision‐making process. The result is a process that encourages communication among different stakeholders and allows remediation practitioners to achieve regulatory goals and maximize the integration of sustainability parameters during the remediation process. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.